Preserve our National Igloo

Right now our neighbours to the south are selecting the candidates who will run in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election.

A man named Mike Huckabee has upset the conventional wisdom by becoming the current front-runner to receive the Republican nomination.

Canadians may remember him congratulating us for preserving our National Igloo.

If Americans had heard of him they probably knew him less as Governor of Arkansas and more for losing over 100 pounds (which is a fairly difficult thing to do).

While some of the national polls are conflicted, Huckabee scored an upset win in the Iowa Caucus (the first event to select delegates).

Can he – like another man from Hope, Arkansas – become President?

Why They Love Him

Huckabee is definitely still the underdog, he lacks the campaign infrastructure that some others have (e.g. he was late for one interview because he had to iron his own suit).

He has several attributes that have helped his rise. He wrote an, apparently, inspiring book about his weight-loss.

He is both charming and – rare for a politician – genuinely funny.

See, for example, this ad:

But perhaps his the important trait for his electoral success is his strong Christian faith.

Huckabee, a pastor himself, has benefited from a network of preachers talking up his candidacy.

And it paid off:

In Iowa, Huckabee beat his closest competitor by 26 points among Evangelical Christians but lost by 20 points among non-Evangelicals.

Huckabee’s religion appears to be the foundation of his politics. Drawing on the bible he showed concern for the poor, illegal immigrants and African-Americans (particularly impressive is a speech he gave at the 40th anniversary of the integration of Little Rock’s Central High).

As governor he gave out an unprecedented number of pardons (more than the three previous governors combined).

While some saw this as mercy, it angered relatives of the victims. Particularly controversial was his freeing of a rapist who went on to rape and kill again.

Huckabee’s religion informs his opinion in other cases as well:

• He’s very anti-abortion
• He equates homosexuality with necrophilia and pedophilia
• He believes women should submit to their husbands
• He doesn’t believe in evolution
• He’s running as a “Christian leader”

These latter beliefs are probably not causing controversy in the Republican party (less than 1 in 6 Americans believe in evolution after all).

Rather, his attitude towards raising taxes to help, among others, the poor have drawn fire from the monied wing of the Republican party.

Branches of Conservatives

Stephen Harper once gave an interesting speech about the need to unify what he saw as the two branches of conservative movement: theocons (social conservatives) and neocons (economic conservatives).

He argued that the conservative movement should tack towards the social conservatives.

Huckabee agrees, saying theocons have been taken for granted; the Republicans will take their votes and make soothing noises but when push comes to shove will not deliver.

Theocon positions like federal action against gay marriage and abortion have languished while the Republicans spent their political capital on tax cuts for the rich and attempting to privatize social security. No Republican President has attended the annual anti-Abortion “March For Life” but they’ll gladly meet with CEOs.

Despite this the Republicans have had an ace-in-the-hole: the President’s ability to nominate justices to the U.S. Supreme Court. But this is not as decisive an advantage as it seems. After all, 7 of the 9 Supreme Court Justices were appointed by Republicans.

The Court produced many rulings that delighted economic conservatives (striking down regulations, limiting liability etc.) but dismayed social conservatives (upholding abortion, decriminalized homosexual sex etc.).

When it looked like the pro-choice, pro-gay, thrice-married Rudy Giuliani was going to take the Republican nomination the theocons were told it was their duty to support the nominee. Now that Huckabee’s a serious contender many people from the economic conservative wing are muttering about not supporting him if he’s the nominee.

This is not a hard-and-fast division, of course. As Harper noted “strong economic and social conservatives are more often than not the same people.” And social conservatives do occasionally get outcomes they desire from the State.

For example, a ban on so-called “partial-birth” abortions was passed by the Republican Congress, signed by President Bush and upheld by the Supreme Court. As well some argue that the social/economic conservative dichotomy does not take into account Republicans whose main issues relate to foreign policy.

But even that said there is definitely tension between social conservatives and the Republican Party and that is why Huckabee has surged upwards from 1% to front-runner.

Eerie Similarities

Or maybe Huckabee isn’t such a radical departure– he seems very similar to George W. Bush when he was running for President.

Both were southern governors with strong social conservative street cred.

Both reached out to minorities while governor (Bush to Latinos, Huckabee to blacks).

Neither knew very much about foreign policy.

While asked about Benazir Bhutto’s assassination Huckabee hit the ignorance trifecta. He said:

• Pakistani illegal immigration was massive (it’s not)

• martial law was still in effect (it isn’t)

• Afghanistan is on Pakistan’s eastern border (it isn’t).

Both appeared to have genial personalities but have simmering anger underneath.

So while Huckabee seems like a 21st William Jennings Bryan (a 19th century religious populist and the subject of the most vicious obituary I’ve ever read) he has a lot in common with Bush circa 2000.

The voters will have to decide if that’s what they want in a President, again.