Comments on: Federal Election Strategic Voting Tool

By: Social Media and Politics, and the New Coalition in Canada : Social Media Mafia

Social Media and Politics, and the New Coalition in Canada : Social Media Mafia — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 18:41:00 +0000

[...] What I found most interesting from the discussion that ensued afterward was the suggestion that vote monitoring tactics observed during the U.S. Presidential election could be duplicated here, specifically for the proposed vote-swap. [...]

By: Lawrence Gridin

Lawrence Gridin — Sat, 04 Oct 2008 03:05:28 +0000

Dear Miss Vicky:

According to the website:

The bar graph on the left presents the number of votes each party received in that riding in 2006 modified by each party’s current standing in this week’s cumulative polls.

So it is a mix between the 2006 results and the latest national poll results. This is the best they can do given that polls are not conducted riding by riding in Canada (it would be too expensive, probably).

There are some ridings where the editors of the website use some pretty fuzzy math to come up with the figures. But in the description, they do explain that the figures are “adjusted” to take account of certain factors, such as recent unpopularity of a candidate.

I have revised my post to indicate that the numbers they give are an “estimate.”

By: Miss Vicky

Miss Vicky — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 23:59:41 +0000

You really should clarify that the riding polling numbers are not based on actual polls conducted in the riding. Rather, it’s an extrapolation of the national numbers. And a rather questionable one at that. Check out punditsguide.ca for an excellent post on the dangers of uncritical strategic voting.